A working thesis on the future of trade

The infrastructure of trust is changing.

Commerce has always depended on trusted identities, documents, institutions and rules. As trade becomes digital—and increasingly agentic—those mechanisms must become portable, verifiable and interoperable.

Exchange begins where self-sufficiency ends.

People trade because resources, skills, time and needs are unevenly distributed. Exchange lets each side gain from what the other can do or provide—but it also separates a promise from its performance.

01Difference
02Exchange
03Exposure
04Trust
05Commerce at scale

Trust turns uncertainty into a transaction.

The buyer cannot fully know the goods, the seller cannot fully know the payment, and neither side can control the future. Commerce grows when shared mechanisms make identity, quality, delivery, payment and recourse credible enough to proceed.

Then

Paper carried trust.

Signatures, originals, stamps, documentary credits and institutional reputation made claims actionable across distance.

Now

Data carries commerce.

Information moves faster, but remains fragmented across platforms, formats, registries and organisational boundaries.

Next

Evidence must travel.

Identity, provenance, authority, verification and permissions need to move with the data—not be reconstructed at every step.

Trust is not blind faith. It is the set of reasons that makes an exchange worth the risk.

Digitisation solved movement. It did not solve meaning.

01

Information is abundant

Documents and data circulate at unprecedented speed, but more information does not automatically create more confidence.

02

Systems remain fragmented

Participants repeatedly translate, reconcile and re-check the same facts across incompatible platforms.

03

Claims are becoming operational

Origin, compliance, quality, ownership and performance claims increasingly determine access to markets, finance and customers.

04

Machines are entering the transaction

AI agents can discover, compare and transact at scale. They need permissions, evidence and verifiable authority—not persuasive prose.

From measured gold and stamped metal to verifiable data.

Trade has always needed trust to travel farther than personal relationships. Across cultures, people built shared signals that made value recognisable, promises portable and disputes governable.

ChinaA coin becomes a common language.

After unifying China in 221 BCE, Qin Shihuang standardised the banliang coin across the empire. A consistent form and weight made value legible beyond a local market.

British Museum — The history of money ↗
West AfricaMeasurement creates confidence.

From the 1400s, Akan traders used precise brass weights to measure gold dust. Shared units—and expert weighing—made exchange possible across extensive commercial networks.

The Met — Akan gold weights ↗
EuropeAuthority, then endorsement.

Stable florins and ducats became trusted across Europe; later, bills of exchange carried signed promises from one holder to the next. Trust moved from the ruler’s mark to a chain of accountable names.

British Museum — Signs of authority ↗
Modern foundations
1933

Rules become portable

The ICC’s Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits gives banks and traders a common contractual language across differing legal systems.

ICC — UCP history ↗
1996

Electronic form gains legal equivalence

The UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Commerce establishes non-discrimination, technology neutrality and functional equivalence as foundations of electronic commerce law.

UNCITRAL — Model Law on Electronic Commerce ↗
2017

Possession becomes control

UNCITRAL’s Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records shows how reliable electronic methods can perform functions once tied to paper possession, including control and integrity.

UNCITRAL — MLETR ↗
2020

Interoperability becomes the programme

The ICC Digital Standards Initiative begins the work of enabling a globally harmonised, digitalised trade environment across the public and private sectors.

ICC DSI — Mission ↗
2022–24

A trust layer is articulated

ICC DSI’s Principles for Digital Trust and Trust Supply Chain connect digital identity, interoperable data and verifiability as a distinct layer alongside physical, financial and information flows.

ICC DSI — Trust Supply Chain ↗
2023

Law follows the model

The UK Electronic Trade Documents Act recognises qualifying electronic trade documents as capable of possession, giving them the same legal functionality as paper counterparts.

UK legislation — Explanatory notes ↗

What the next trust layer needs.

No single technology, registry or institution is sufficient. Six capabilities need to work together if trust is to move across systems, borders and decisions.

01

Identity

Who—or what—is acting, and under whose authority?

02

Evidence

What supports the claim, decision or transaction?

03

Provenance

Where did the information originate, and how has it changed?

04

Verification

Who checked it, against which method, and when?

05

Interoperability

Can the meaning survive movement across systems and borders?

06

Permissions

Who may see, use, share or act on the information?

Trusted Commerce is not…

  • A single platform or database
  • A synonym for blockchain
  • A guarantee that every claim is true
  • A replacement for regulation or expert judgement

The same trust problem appears everywhere.

The same infrastructure can serve different commercial decisions without collapsing them into one standard or one platform.

01

Trade finance

Reuse reliable evidence about counterparties, goods and transactions to reduce repeated checks and improve access to capital.

02

Compliance

Connect declarations, credentials and regulatory evidence to the party, product or shipment they actually concern.

03

Supply chains

Preserve lineage as information moves between producers, logistics providers, brands, banks and authorities.

04

Product claims

Make origin, composition, quality and performance claims easier to inspect and harder to detach from their evidence.

05

Agentic commerce

Give AI agents machine-readable authority, permissions and evidence so they can evaluate and act within explicit boundaries.

06

Sustainability

Allow environmental and social claims to carry their baseline, methodology, evidence, responsible entity and verification.

Trust is an economic technology.

Economists and practitioners describe different parts of the same problem: confidence enables exchange; institutions reduce uncertainty; competition keeps markets open; and participation determines who benefits.

Kenneth Arrow · Economist
“Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust.”

Arrow’s observation is the simplest foundation for Trusted Commerce: whenever delivery, payment or performance is not simultaneous, confidence becomes economically productive.

Gifts and Exchanges · 1972 ↗
Douglass North · Economic historian
“Institutions are the humanly devised constraints that structure human interaction.”

Rules, norms and enforcement do not sit outside the market. They shape incentives, reduce uncertainty and determine which exchanges can happen at scale.

Nobel Prize lecture · 1993 ↗
Jan Eeckhout · Economist
“Interoperability leads to a huge increase in efficiency, enormous competition.”

Eeckhout’s work adds a crucial condition: trust infrastructure must not become a new gatekeeper. Interoperability can lower switching costs and preserve contestable markets.

The Profit Paradox interview · 2021 ↗
Martin Smith · Practitioner-researcher
Trust should not stop at a verified claim. It should shape who participates in value, governance and reward.

Through CommonShare and The Ownership Economy, Smith connects traceability with a broader design question: how the people who create value can share in its upside.

Origins and Future of the Ownership Economy · 2022 ↗
Further reading

The Barcelona Declaration for Trusted Commerce

A shared direction for the people and institutions shaping the next era of exchange.

Presented for signature at the ECOSYSTEM Summit · Barcelona · September 2026

Commerce begins with difference.

We exchange because no individual, organisation or country possesses every resource, skill or capability it needs. Through commerce, what one party can provide becomes valuable to another. Exchange allows knowledge to travel, organisations to specialise and societies to prosper.

But every exchange contains a moment of uncertainty.

A buyer must trust the quality of what is offered. A seller must trust that payment will arrive. Workers, producers, investors, regulators and communities must trust that commitments will be honoured and that the information on which decisions are made is worthy of belief.

Commerce therefore depends on more than transactions. It depends on trust.

Throughout history, societies have created ways for trust to travel: shared measures, stamped coins, signatures, contracts, institutions, professional standards and systems of law. These mechanisms allowed people to exchange beyond the boundaries of family, proximity and personal reputation.

Today, commerce is changing again.

Products, payments, claims and decisions move across borders and digital systems at unprecedented speed. Artificial intelligence is beginning to discover, compare, negotiate and act on behalf of people and organisations. Regulatory expectations are turning statements about origin, ownership, quality, impact and responsibility into obligations that must be supported by evidence.

We have digitised the movement of information. We have not yet made its meaning equally portable.

Evidence remains fragmented. The same facts are repeatedly requested, translated and verified. Important claims become separated from their sources. Organisations are asked to trust systems they cannot inspect, while those who create essential data, knowledge and value often have little control over how these are used.

The result is not simply inefficiency. It is a growing distance between what commerce says and what people can confidently know.

We believe that closing this distance is one of the defining economic and institutional challenges of the coming decade.

We call the shared response to this challenge Trusted Commerce.

Trusted Commerce is the capacity to know who or what is acting, what is being claimed, what evidence supports that claim, which rules apply and who is entitled to rely on it. It does not require blind confidence. It creates better grounds for judgement.

We hold the following principles

Trust must travel with the transaction.

Identity, authority, provenance, evidence, permissions and accountability should remain connected to commercial information as it moves between organisations, systems and jurisdictions.

Claims should be inspectable.

Assertions about products, organisations and outcomes should be traceable to evidence, methods and accountable parties. Trust grows when the basis of a claim can be understood—not merely when a badge is displayed.

Interoperability is a condition of open commerce.

Trusted infrastructure should enable information to move without forcing every participant into a single platform or proprietary ecosystem. Standards and systems should expand meaningful choice, competition and participation.

Technology must strengthen human agency.

AI and automation can expand access, improve decisions and reduce unnecessary friction. They must operate within clear authority, explainable boundaries and accountable governance. Responsibility cannot disappear simply because a decision has been automated.

Those who create value should have a voice in how it is governed.

Workers, producers, communities and organisations that contribute knowledge and data should not be treated only as sources of input. Durable systems recognise contribution through agency, appropriate rights and a fair opportunity to share in the value created.

Progress must be demonstrable.

Whether the question concerns origin, quality, compliance, ownership or sustainability, confidence should rest on credible evidence. Trusted Commerce does not decide what good performance means; it helps make performance visible, comparable and accountable.

Trust is shared infrastructure.

No company, government, certification body or technology provider can build it alone. It emerges from compatible rules, institutions, standards and practices—and from the willingness of participants to be accountable to one another.

We commit to moving from principle to practice

As leaders from business, technology, finance, policy, science, standards, certification and civil society, we commit to:

  • Connect important commercial claims to evidence and accountable entities.
  • Support standards and architectures that enable interoperability and responsible reuse.
  • Preserve meaningful human oversight as AI becomes part of commercial decision-making.
  • Respect legitimate rights over data, knowledge, participation and value.
  • Reduce duplicated verification without weakening assurance.
  • Share practical lessons across industries and disciplines.
  • Build systems that make responsible participation possible for smaller organisations, producers and communities—not only for those with the greatest resources.
  • Treat trust as a continuous practice of governance, transparency and accountability.

We recognise that trust cannot be declared into existence. It must be earned through the systems we design, the commitments we honour and the power we are prepared to share.

We sign this declaration not to endorse a particular platform, standard or organisation, but to establish a common direction.

From Barcelona, we invite leaders across sectors, geographies and disciplines to join us in building a commercial system in which information can move without losing its meaning, innovation can scale without concentrating control, and progress can be recognised because it can be trusted.

The future of commerce will not be defined by speed alone.

It will be defined by whether people, organisations and intelligent systems have sufficient reason to act on what they receive—and whether the infrastructure beneath those decisions deserves their confidence.

Trust must become part of the architecture.

Martin SmithCo-founder, CommonShare
Lindsey MooreFounder & CEO, DevelopMetrics

Better commerce needs information that can move. Trusted commerce needs information worthy of action.